A scientific paper by experts in Medicine, Epidemiology and Statistics, estimates actual death rate 0.04%-0.12%
A paper, Early epidemiological assessment of the transmission 1 potential and virulence of coronavirus disease 2019 2 (COVID-19) in Wuhan City: China, January-February, 2020, found a death rate much lower than estimated by the WHO when New Zealand considered lockdown.
We also found that 50 most recent crude infection fatality ratio (IFR) and time–delay adjusted IFR is estimated 51 to be 0.04% (95% CrI: 0.03%–0.06%) and 0.12% (95%CrI: 0.08–0.17%), which is 52 several orders of magnitude smaller than the crude CFR estimated at 4.19%.
The paper was published by Kenji Mizumoto, Katsushi Kagaya, and Gerardo Chowell.
Dr. Mizumoto is a Professor at the Graduate School of Advanced Integrated Studies in Human Survivability, Kyoto 7 University Yoshida–Nakaadachi–cho, in Sakyo–ku, Kyoto, Japan/
Drs. Mizumoto and Kagaya, are also researchers at the Hakubi Center for Advanced Research, Kyoto University, Yoshidahonmachi, in Sakyo–ku,Kyoto, Japan.
Drs. Mizumoto and Chowell teach at the Department of Population Health Sciences, School of Public Health, Georgia State 11 University, in Atlanta, Georgia, US.
Dr. Chowell is a researcher at Seto Marine Biological Laboratory, Field Science, Education and Reseach Center, 13 Kyoto University, in Shirahama–cho, Nishimuro–gun, Wakayama, Japan.