COVID-19 Antibody prevalence in California

Serology study identifies 50-85-fold more people infected than the number of confirmed cases – dramatically decreasing the case fatality rate.
The population prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in Santa Clara County implies that the infection is much more widespread than indicated by the number of confirmed cases. Population prevalence estimates can now be used to calibrate epidemic and mortality projections.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v1

Sweden’s approach is working

21 April: “Encouraging signs” that Sweden’s approach is working, and will work over the longer term. Sweden’s authorities proposed a liberal approach based on individual responsibility because it can be tolerated for longer and it has the effect of ‘flattening the curve’.

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-swedish-experiment-looks-like-it-s-paying-off

UK Expert: lockdown now will outweigh coronavirus harm

Professor Carl Heneghan, director of the centre for evidence-based medicine at Oxford University, told Radio 4’s Today programme: “In fact, the damaging effect now of lockdown is going to outweigh the damaging effect of coronavirus.”

https://in.news.yahoo.com/lockdown-damage-outweighs-coronavirus-warning-121940675.html?

Population-level Study: COVID-19 mortality risk for non-elderly individuals overall or without underlying diseases in pandemic epicenters

Study led by John P. A. Ioannidis, Stanford University, finds people <65 years old have very small risks of COVID-19 death even in the hotbeds of the pandemic and deaths for people <65 years without underlying predisposing conditions are remarkably uncommon. Concludes that strategies focusing specifically on protecting high-risk elderly individuals should be considered in managing the pandemic.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.05.20054361v1

 

World Data map

Data and case – world map. Updated.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/11/coronavirus-world-map-which-countries-have-the-most-cases-and-deaths

 

Yale Prof produces non-lockdown COVID19 protection system

A risk and vulnerability chart by David L. Katz, founding director (1998-2019) of Yale University’s Yale-Griffin Prevention Research Center, shows how a non-lockdown system would protect vulnerable people from Covid19.

https://davidkatzmd.com/coronavirus-information-and-resources/

Ioannidis says emerging data suggest COVID19 doesn’t warrant extreme reaction

https://youtu.be/QUvWaxuurzQ?t=2
April 3. John Ioannidis explains that emerging data on COVID-19 suggests the disease does not warrant the extreme Western response.

Ioannidis: Not enough data for big decisions

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/
March 17: John P.A. Ioannidis, professor of medicine, epidemiology, and population health, at Stanford University School of Medicine, says the public health response could be a fiasco because big decisions are being made without enough data.