Are the coronavirus epidemiological models any good?

Health issues India discuss coronavirus models with Dr Simon Thornley.

 

Did lockdowns save anyone?

Sweden’s former top state epidemiologist has claimed unless a vaccine is found soon, lockdowns like New Zealand’s won’t prevent any deaths at all – just push them into the future.

Johan Giesecke’s call, published by journal The Lancet, comes the same week a new paper claims lockdowns in hard-hit western Europe haven’t saved a single life at all, which has split opinion among experts.

Sweden has taken a different approach to handling the COVID-19 pandemic than most other countries, deciding against a lockdown of any kind, instead relying on people following social distancing guidelines. As of Monday, it had 26,300 confirmed cases and 3225 deaths – far more than its Scandinavian neighbours, but only a fraction of those seen in Spain, Italy and the UK, which have all implemented lockdowns of various kinds.

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/world/2020/05/coronavirus-did-europe-s-lockdowns-save-anyone-at-all.html

Sweden’s approach is working

21 April: “Encouraging signs” that Sweden’s approach is working, and will work over the longer term. Sweden’s authorities proposed a liberal approach based on individual responsibility because it can be tolerated for longer and it has the effect of ‘flattening the curve’.

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-swedish-experiment-looks-like-it-s-paying-off

UK Expert: lockdown now will outweigh coronavirus harm

Professor Carl Heneghan, director of the centre for evidence-based medicine at Oxford University, told Radio 4’s Today programme: “In fact, the damaging effect now of lockdown is going to outweigh the damaging effect of coronavirus.”

https://in.news.yahoo.com/lockdown-damage-outweighs-coronavirus-warning-121940675.html?

Health experts feel censored over alternative lockdown plan

A group of health experts who believe the Government’s lockdown response has been too harsh say… They’re concerned the Government is getting all its scientific advice from an echo chamber as it prepares to decide our immediate future on Monday.

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2020/04/coronavirus-health-experts-feel-censored-over-alternative-lockdown-plan.html

UK parties unite to demand parliament recall

April 11: The government faces a chorus of cross-party calls on Sunday for the urgent recall of parliament in “virtual” form as MPs and peers demand the right to hold ministers to account over the escalating coronavirus crisis.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/11/political-parties-demand-recall-parliament-keir-starmer-labour

 

“Loxit”: we need debate and open minds on how to exit lockdown

March 22: Aaron Ginn wrote a long, charts-and-statistics-filled blog post at Medium arguing that the available public health data shows that COVID-19 is less easily transmitted, less fatal, and more likely to fade away with the hot weather than the conventional wisdom would have you believe. Medium deleted the post, which is now hosted at ZeroHedge. Deleting arguments like Ginn’s is a bad and dangerous way to handle the still-roiling debate over what governments and society should do in order to react to the disease.

https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/coronavirus-pandemic-lockdown-debate-requires-transparent-disagreement/

 

How long can the covid fight be sustained

New York Times opinion piece on 24 March weighs up pros and cons of the fight against Covid19.

As the country tallies up the economic cost of its first week of fighting the coronavirus pandemic — potentially millions of job losses, a plunging stock market and apprehensions of another Great Depression — an unspeakable thought has become a whisper, and the whisper an all-caps tweet: What if we just didn’t?

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/24/opinion/coronavirus-economy-social-distancing.html