COVID-19 Antibody prevalence in California

Serology study identifies 50-85-fold more people infected than the number of confirmed cases – dramatically decreasing the case fatality rate.
The population prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in Santa Clara County implies that the infection is much more widespread than indicated by the number of confirmed cases. Population prevalence estimates can now be used to calibrate epidemic and mortality projections.

Sweden’s approach is working

21 April: “Encouraging signs” that Sweden’s approach is working, and will work over the longer term. Sweden’s authorities proposed a liberal approach based on individual responsibility because it can be tolerated for longer and it has the effect of ‘flattening the curve’.

UK Expert: lockdown now will outweigh coronavirus harm

Professor Carl Heneghan, director of the centre for evidence-based medicine at Oxford University, told Radio 4’s Today programme: “In fact, the damaging effect now of lockdown is going to outweigh the damaging effect of coronavirus.”

Levitt, Nobel laureatte: No evidence of large loss of life

World famous biophysicist Michael Levitt: information suggests that  this is not a particularly bad year for [virus /flu] deaths.


Pre-eminent intl’ epidemiologist: protect only the old and frail

Extraordinary interview with Prof. Johan Giesecke at Unherd.

  • UK policy on lockdown and other European countries are not evidence-based
  • The correct policy is to protect the old and the frail only
  • This will eventually lead to herd immunity as a “by-product”
  • The initial UK response, before the “180 degree U-turn”, was better
  • The Imperial College paper was “not very good” and he has never seen an unpublished paper have so much policy impact
  • The paper was very much too pessimistic
  • Any such models are a dubious basis for public policy anyway
  • The flattening of the curve is due to the most vulnerable dying first as much as the lockdown
  • The results will eventually be similar for all countries
  • Covid-19 is a “mild disease” and similar to the flu, and it was the novelty of the disease that scared people.
  • The actual fatality rate of Covid-19 is the region of 0.1%
  • At least 50% of the population of both the UK and Sweden will be shown to have already had the disease when mass antibody testing becomes available

Swedish expert: why lockdowns are the wrong policy


Australia and NZ: Compared

Australian chief medical officer Professor Brendan Murphy talks to NZ’s Epidemic Response Select Comittee on how long term vigilence, without lockdown, is suppressing virus impact.

Australia and NZ: Compared.

Castalia finds that although Australia’s “activity-based” approach allows a wider range of activity to continue than New Zealand’s “bubble” approach, which constrains activity, the epidemiological results of Covid infection cases and death are similar.

Comparing the New Zealand and Australian states’ responses to COVID-19

Population-level Study: COVID-19 mortality risk for non-elderly individuals overall or without underlying diseases in pandemic epicenters

Study led by John P. A. Ioannidis, Stanford University, finds people <65 years old have very small risks of COVID-19 death even in the hotbeds of the pandemic and deaths for people <65 years without underlying predisposing conditions are remarkably uncommon. Concludes that strategies focusing specifically on protecting high-risk elderly individuals should be considered in managing the pandemic.


World Data map

Data and case – world map. Updated.


Scientists halve WHO mortality estimate

A study, led by Professor Joseph Wu of the University of Hong Kong, and colleagues at Harvard University analysed published data on 425 early confirmed cases and 41 fataliites in Wuhan.

They found that overall, the proportion of patients that died was 1.4 per cent 

The World Health Organization said in early March the death rate was 3.4 per cent.