10 Reasons to end lockdown

Dr John Lee, Retired Professor of Pathology, writing in The Spectator:

Even if one could understand why lockdown was imposed, it very rapidly became apparent that it had not been thought through. Not in terms of the wider effects on society (which have yet to be counted) and not even in terms of the ways that the virus itself might behave.

 

…at the start, there was hardly any evidence. Everyone was guessing. Now we have a world of evidence, from around the globe, and the case for starting to reverse lockdown is compelling.

 

…Covid is not, in fact, an extraordinarily lethal pathogen, just a nasty one, similar to many others.

 

…our new normal should look very much like our old, perhaps with the addition of some social responsibility in the face of respiratory illness. It is the only way for us to live in the world.

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/ten-reasons-to-end-the-lockdown-now

 

Covid immunity passports: yeah, nah

COVID-19 immunity passports and vaccination certificates: scientific, equitable, and legal challenges

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31034-5/fulltext

The Lancet: The invisible pandemic

It has become clear that a hard lockdown does not protect old and frail people living in care homes—a population the lockdown was designed to protect.

Neither does it decrease mortality from COVID-19, which is evident when comparing the UK’s experience with that of other European countries.

 

PCR testing and some straightforward assumptions indicate that, as of April 29, 2020, more than half a million people in Stockholm county, Sweden, which is about 20–25% of the population, have been infected (Hansson D, Swedish Public Health Agency, personal communication). 98–99% of these people are probably unaware or uncertain of having had the infection; they either had symptoms that were severe, but not severe enough for them to go to a hospital and get tested, or no symptoms at all. Serology testing is now supporting these assumptions.

Everyone will be exposed to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, and most people will become infected. COVID-19 is spreading like wildfire in all countries, but we do not see it—it almost always spreads from younger people with no or weak symptoms to other people who will also have mild symptoms. This is the real pandemic, but it goes on beneath the surface, and is probably at its peak now in many European countries. There is very little we can do to prevent this spread: a lockdown might delay severe cases for a while, but once restrictions are eased, cases will reappear. I expect that when we count the number of deaths from COVID-19 in each country in 1 year from now, the figures will be similar, regardless of measures taken.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31035-7/fulltext

Study shows no relationship between lockdowns and lower Covid-19 deaths

uh-oh.

Comparing US states shows there is no relationship between lockdowns and lower Covid-19 deaths.

https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/04/22/there-is-no-empirical-evidence-for-these-lockdowns/

Sweden’s approach is working

21 April: “Encouraging signs” that Sweden’s approach is working, and will work over the longer term. Sweden’s authorities proposed a liberal approach based on individual responsibility because it can be tolerated for longer and it has the effect of ‘flattening the curve’.

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-swedish-experiment-looks-like-it-s-paying-off

UK Expert: lockdown now will outweigh coronavirus harm

Professor Carl Heneghan, director of the centre for evidence-based medicine at Oxford University, told Radio 4’s Today programme: “In fact, the damaging effect now of lockdown is going to outweigh the damaging effect of coronavirus.”

https://in.news.yahoo.com/lockdown-damage-outweighs-coronavirus-warning-121940675.html?

Levitt, Nobel laureatte: No evidence of large loss of life

World famous biophysicist Michael Levitt: information suggests that  this is not a particularly bad year for [virus /flu] deaths.

https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/sunday/audio/2018743210/no-evidence-that-covid-19-is-causing-huge-loss-of-life

 

Pre-eminent intl’ epidemiologist: protect only the old and frail

Extraordinary interview with Prof. Johan Giesecke at Unherd.

  • UK policy on lockdown and other European countries are not evidence-based
  • The correct policy is to protect the old and the frail only
  • This will eventually lead to herd immunity as a “by-product”
  • The initial UK response, before the “180 degree U-turn”, was better
  • The Imperial College paper was “not very good” and he has never seen an unpublished paper have so much policy impact
  • The paper was very much too pessimistic
  • Any such models are a dubious basis for public policy anyway
  • The flattening of the curve is due to the most vulnerable dying first as much as the lockdown
  • The results will eventually be similar for all countries
  • Covid-19 is a “mild disease” and similar to the flu, and it was the novelty of the disease that scared people.
  • The actual fatality rate of Covid-19 is the region of 0.1%
  • At least 50% of the population of both the UK and Sweden will be shown to have already had the disease when mass antibody testing becomes available

Swedish expert: why lockdowns are the wrong policy

 

Australia and NZ: Compared

Australian chief medical officer Professor Brendan Murphy talks to NZ’s Epidemic Response Select Comittee on how long term vigilence, without lockdown, is suppressing virus impact.

https://www.facebook.com/NZParliament/videos/255297012184000

https://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/news/national/aussie-health-chief-on-where-nz-got-lucky-around-covid-19/

Wuhan Covid-19 lockdown ends

April 11: The people of the city where the first virus was first detected are taking their first cautious steps outside after being confined for three months.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/12/wuhan-celebrates-its-liberation-as-covid-19-lockdown-ends